Arms embargo is a key instrument for restricting the spread of military technologies and influencing geopolitical conflict. Embargoes are often imposed by States or international organisations such as the EU or the UN, and can be enforced through a wide range of regulations and laws including EU rules, export control authorities and national law (for example, the US Foreign Trade Act).
One important implication of arms restrictions is that they influence the strategic decisions made by incumbent governments and rebels who oppose them. For example, if a government is heavily dependent on arms imports, they may be more likely to commit serious violations of international humanitarian law and human rights. On the other hand, if arms restrictions decrease an incumbent government’s military strength, it could lead to increased political instability and rebellious tendencies.
Embargoes are a common tool in the arsenal of conflict prevention and peacebuilding, but it is challenging to design them effectively. Unilateral arms embargoes can have little impact if the target state is determined to circumvent them. For example, despite the severe multilateral sanctions on North Korea, the country has developed a robust manufacturing capability and stockpiles of weapons.
Moreover, it is difficult to verify whether an arms shipment has been sold or transferred to a prohibited end-user in the case of a multilateral arms embargo. For these reasons, the Arms Trade Treaty’s (ATT) preamble calls on States to “refrain from transferring conventional arms when they have knowledge that such arms or items would be used in connection with genocide, crimes against humanity, grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of 1949, attacks directed against civilian objects and civilians protected as such, war crimes and other violations of international humanitarian and human rights law.” Consequently, the ATT requires States to make clear in their export licensing processes that they will not transfer conventional arms to entities that are guilty of such violations.