Regime change can be a powerful tool for promoting democracy, but only if it happens through free and fair elections or a negotiated transition. It can also cause conflict, the erosion of democratic institutions, and the concentration of power in a single person or group.
Social movements are a common catalyst for regime change, and they often mobilize through new communication technologies like social media. Economic instability is another factor that can lead to political upheaval. And external influences can be an important factor as well, such as the influence of foreign powers over a government or a perception that a regime is too anti-American.
In the past, the United States has promoted regime change around the world in pursuit of its own foreign policy goals. But there is now a growing scholarly consensus that foreign regime-change operations rarely succeed as planned, and they almost always produce deleterious side effects. These include civil wars, lower levels of democracy, increased repression, and a long, drawn-out nation-building project.
While regime change may be desirable for some purposes, it should not be used as a way to pursue broader American interests. Foreign polities have different priorities, and changing the existing leadership is unlikely to shift those priorities in favor of America’s. Moreover, regime change policies often erode the rule of law and democratic institutions. They can also create a path toward autocracy that reshapes the judicial system, as illustrated by recent developments in Hungary and Turkey.